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Shorter duration of snow cover directly influences the length of the growing season and the phenology of plant production and consumption Gottfried et al. Permafrost degradation exacerbates surface erosion Grannas et al. The disappearance of perennial ice and degradation of permafrost is likely to be accompanied by progressive drying of the surface and a decrease in vegetation cover. These factors will increase the effects of aeolian wind action and elevate the potential risk of desertification Wang and French, , Upward shifts of species and communities in response to a reduction in the cryosphere and warming climate are already evident in some mountain environments Telwala et al.
In the Alps, upward movement of some plant taxa at a rate of 1—4 m per decade has been observed at higher elevations, together with a loss of some taxa that were formerly restricted to these elevations Watson and Haeberli, Furthermore, concerning the riverine biodiversity, species of cold-adapted invertebrates from higher elevations are increasingly being displaced with the expansion of less cryophilic species due to a decrease in glacier runoff to streams, thus changing the hierarchical habitat template Wilhelm et al.
Large carbon pools have accumulated in the wetlands of the world's cold regions, primarily in peatlands. Much of this carbon is sequestered in permafrost Jin et al. Permafrost degradation is likely to increase the emission of major greenhouse gases from these layers, leading to further changes in the climate Cheng and Wu, Recession of the cryosphere and resultant changes in vegetation could have a marked impact on the atmospheric exchange of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, which will impact ecosystem functioning Callaghan et al.
As mentioned above, there are considerable deposits of pollutants, especially POPs, stored in glacier ice. These are not only significant for water; melting of Arctic glaciers has released massive amounts of POPs back into the atmosphere, leading to a slight increase in the concentration of a variety of POPs in the Arctic atmosphere over the past 20 years Ma et al. Existing trends and future projections suggest that the cryosphere is likely to shrink substantially in the coming decades at the current global warming rate. This is expected to change hydrological regimes in glacier-dependent regions and affect river and stream flow, bringing additional risks and uncertainties to food, water, and energy security while exacerbating ecosystem and environmental degradation.
Some of these effects are already being observed though their characteristics and magnitude of risks vary considerably across sectors and mountain regions Table 3. Although effects are difficult to quantify and existing studies are limited in scope, it is clear that cryosphere change will have a considerable impact on water availability in the future, both upstream and downstream. Evidence suggests that the impact will be more severe in arid and semi- arid mountain regions Messerli et al. Since glaciers are still melting with increased precipitation, the impacts are not clearly evident downstream, and the shortage of water availability is likely to emerge only gradually as glaciers increasingly vanish Huss et al.
Furthermore, cryosphere change may bring additional risks to urban water supply, particularly in the Andes and the Himalayas, where the water supply of many big cities depends partly on water from glacier and snowmelt. As urbanization rapidly increases, cryosphere loss will pose management challenges for urban planners and managers in many mountain regions, particularly in the Andes and the Himalayas.
The agriculture sector is already experiencing adverse effects and is likely to be severely affected in the future.
The effect of cryosphere shrinkage is likely to be felt beyond the mountain regions along the glaciated river basins. Changes in water availability due to cryospheric and climatic factors may immediately affect agricultural productivity in upstream areas and downstream areas in the long run. Glacier and snowmelt water contributes considerably to the supply of dry season irrigation water in the river basins of the Indus, Upper-Ganges, Upper-Brahmaputra, and Yangtze, which are the bread basket for billions of people in Asia Siderius et al.
Similarly, the tourism sector, particularly winter sports in the Alps and North America, have already been affected negatively by snow reduction. In the future the industry is expected to become unviable, causing many to become jobless. Glacier shrinkage can also affect hydropower production in certain regions upon reaching peak water, impacting both energy security and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions, thus posing challenges to reducing greenhouse gas emission and achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement Gonzalez et al.
Findings of this study indicate that the growing risks for water, food, and energy security, together with increasing risk of disasters, are expected to increase economic, social, and environmental vulnerabilities and to introduce new threats to human security Matthew et al. The risks emerging from shrinkage of the cryosphere are adding challenges for sustainable development, particularly in achieving certain sustainable development goals SDGs such as ensuring water availability SDG 6 , achieving food security SDG 2 , ensuring access to affordable energy for all SDG 7 , and combating climate change SDG Cryosphere loss is therefore likely to have far-reaching impacts on societies, the economy, the environment, and ecosystems if appropriate measures are not taken urgently.
The adaptation measures taken so far are limited, fragmented, and narrowly focused McDowell et al. A comprehensive risk management plan at different levels will be needed to minimize the adverse impacts.
This is the first textbook to consider all aspects of the cryosphere system in the context of global environmental change driven by human activity and climate. Considers all six aspects of the cryosphere – ice sheets, glacier ice, permafrost, river and lake ice, sea ice and snow. This is the first textbook to consider all aspects of the cryosphere system in the context of global environmental change driven by human activity and climate.
Adaptation to climatic change vulnerability should be integrated into planning and management of socioeconomic development, and appropriate adaptive and mitigative measures to prevent risks and uncertainties from being further compounded urgently need to be addressed. Cryosphere change may otherwise undermine development efforts aimed at reducing poverty and achieving food, water, and energy security by further triggering social conflicts and human insecurity.
Quantification of the economic and social effects of cryosphere change is important in informing public policies and influencing adaptation decisions. This study, however, was not able to quantify the effects, owing to gaps in data, as most of the documents available are qualitative with limited scope and fail to develop a coherent approach. Further research is needed to quantify, assess, and predict the impacts of cryosphere change on the environment, society, and the economy and its effects on human security, outmigration, and social conflicts. Research is also needed to reduce uncertainties in projected changes in the cryosphere, their potential impacts and their long-term consequences on society, the economy, and the environment.
More interdisciplinary studies are required to better understand how the effects of cryosphere change cascade to the socio-economic sectors, increasing risks and human vulnerabilities, and what sustainable adaptation measures can be adopted on the long-run de Jong, While designing public policies and strategies to deal with the increasing uncertainty emerging from cryosphere shrinkage, a collaborative and integrated approach that considers the impact of water stress on agriculture, energy, food, and the ecosystem needs to be considered.
The main points to consider are as follows:.
Sustainable water storage will be critical for managing seasonal water variability, as cryosphere change is expected to affect the amount and seasonality of flow in most rivers. Reservoirs, however, should be managed carefully to avoid adverse effects on the environment and human settlement Di Baldassarre et al.
This is particularly important in regions like the HKH where seasonality in water availability is high and water storage is gaining importance. As agriculture is the largest user of water, efforts need to be made to reduce water demand for irrigation by improving irrigation methods, changing cropping patterns and the crop calendar, and introducing other water-efficient methods. Efforts should be made to develop more efficient hydropower turbines and to reduce surface evaporation from reservoirs as well as to enhance energy efficiency and reduce wasteful consumption.
Governments have an important role to play in raising awareness about present and future impacts and vulnerabilities, building adequate capacity to cope with impacts, and in helping to put existing adaptation capacities into action. It is also necessary to improve research capacity to understand, assess, and predict impacts so that appropriate response measures can be developed.
Urgent global action is critical to reducing global warming. Addressing the impacts of cryosphere shrinkage will require regional and international cooperation to share experiences and knowledge as well as monitoring risks and facilitating adaption and mitigation measures. GR: conceptualization, data collection, data analysis, writing, and revising.
DM: conceptualization and writing. The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. We extend our sincere thanks to the handling Editor Carmen de Jong and two reviewers Martin John Siegert and Zoe Courville for their constructive and insightful comments which helped to improve the paper.
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