Cyber Power: Crime, Conflict and Security in Cyberspace

The Meaning of Cyber Peace

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All states, however, are mutually dependent in cyberspace. In this lies some hope: This fact creates for state actors a game-theoretic rationale not to engage in all-out cyber warfare, not unlike the logic that has restricted nuclear warfare in the form of MAD — Mutually Assured Destruction. This may also create an incentive for governments to work together on sharing defensive technologies.

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Such malware is frequently found everywhere from defence systems to various critical infrastructure systems. This, in turn, can lead to inadvertent escalation into full-scale conflict. As pointed out in a previous article , extremist movements are increasingly using cyber tools as a force multiplier including propaganda, scare-tactics, recruitment and fundraising with such ease that policy makers, military leaders and intelligence agencies are struggling to keep pace.

Efforts to respond has so far been reactive rather than forward-looking.

This may, for instance, include disinformation campaigns or data integrity attacks that could set off false alarms, such as sensors at nuclear power plants or air raid warnings. Thus, as everyday life becomes increasingly dependent on cyberspace, the potential grows for cyber warfare to cause physical, economic, and social havoc and damage. The world needs a policy framework to address issues ranging from pre-emption and deterrence to rules of modern conflict. For example, what constitutes an act of war in cyberspace? If a cyber-attack causes physical destruction, does it justify physical countermeasures?

What level of confidence about the origin of a cyber-attack would be needed to justify retaliation?

Where should the line be drawn between military and civilian actors and installations in a cyber-conflict? Existing provisions exist in national and international law, and cyberspace should not be seen as a lawless room. International norms are gradually emerging, but technological change is outpacing progress towards cyber versions of arms treaties. Without stepping up efforts to elaborate a system of global norms and regulations, we are at risk of severe fragmentation of cyber-security policy. Governments should do a better job of communicating their positions and actions to the public, responding to the deterioration of trust which has resulted from privacy and human rights concerns, but also ensuring that their ability to secure society through appropriate and legitimate measures is in place.

Iran and Cyber Power | Center for Strategic and International Studies

Private sector companies carry a responsibility to put systems and procedures in place to alert governments about, and in some instances help to counter, malevolent cyber activities that risks compromising international security. Unfortunately, this is not always happening, as companies often do not want to lay bare their proven vulnerabilities for public scrutiny and may not want to report a successful attack.

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Enhanced and more consistent collaboration is needed between the public and private sector to ensure a common understanding of both where the lines should be drawn between them, but also where collaboration is warranted in order to counter adversaries that will never play be the book. Without such collaboration, threats are outpacing our preparedness.

The current effort by President Barack Obama and President Xi Jinping to explore an agreement on a new set of principles to treat cyber as a military capability is a step in the right direction. Although there are a number of outstanding questions still on how to implement any form of agreement on how regulate the international security threats in the cyber domain and how to deal with the politically sensitive issue of attribution, better cooperative measures are urgently needed.

As the public institution for public-private cooperation, the World Economic Forum provides a platform for a broad, multistakeholder dialogue around these issues. Without sufficient preparedness and greater public awareness, we may be up for a rather bumpy ride as we make ourselves not only more connected, but also more interdependent and vulnerable.

Have you read? What will militaries of the future look like?

Can you have both security and privacy in the internet age? The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum. I accept.

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The inspiring story behind this picture of two world leaders Rosamond Hutt 18 Sep Could a progressive consumption tax reduce wealth inequality? More on the agenda. Forum in focus. Read more about this project. Explore context. Explore the latest strategic trends, research and analysis. Featured: Cybersecurity View all. Regarding the latter, some nations would prefer that the United Nations through the ITU take on a larger role in Internet governance on the part of member states, a view opposed by many Western policymakers who prefer a multi-stakeholder governance model. Though at times overblown, tensions between those advocating Internet sovereignty and Internet freedom underscore differing legal, cultural, and ethical traditions informing these policy debates.

For example, due to the focus on applying the law of war to help manage cyber attacks, far less attention has been paid to developing a law of cyber peace. Equally imperative is jumpstarting a conversation on the ethics of cyber conflict, especially for cyber attacks falling below the armed attack threshold such as cybercrime and espionage. There are also attendant enforcement difficulties to consider in fostering cyber peace, which is a problem across a range of international legal arenas from environmental law to the law of armed conflict, as may be seen in Syria.

This idea, though, has been criticized as redundant given ongoing national and inter-governmental efforts aimed at enhancing global cybersecurity. The organization has already had some success in helping to build a bottom-up framework to promote cyber peace such as through a new regional Cybersecurity Innovation Center for the Arab region based in Oman.

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Other proposals have included establishing an International Criminal Tribunal for Cyberspace given the lack of forums to hold cyber attackers and their sponsors accountable, but these proposals also face uncertain political futures given the divides mentioned above. This is a multi-level, multi-purpose, multi-type, and multi-sectoral model developed by scholars including Nobel laureate Elinor Ostrom and Professor Vincent Ostrom that challenges orthodoxy by demonstrating the benefits of self-organization and networking regulations to address common problems such as cyber attacks.

Instead, a polycentric approach recognizes that diverse organizations working at multiple levels can create different types of policies that can increase levels of cooperation and compliance, enhancing regime flexibility and adaptability. Consequently, a top-down approach focused on a single treaty regime or institution could crowd out innovative bottom-up best practices developed organically from diverse ethical and legal cultures.

But even though a grand Internet governance and cybersecurity bargain looks unlikely in the near term, concrete steps may be taken now to reduce cyber risk to all parties while raising the cost to attackers. Sanctions and countermeasures could be levied against nations and private organizations that launch cyber attacks against these or other critical systems. Legal assistance treaties could be strengthened and forums created to help prosecute attackers when national courts are unable or unwilling to exercise jurisdiction.

Cybersecurity could also become more central in trade and bilateral investment treaty negotiations so as to better protect trade secrets, which may be occurring in current U.

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