Climate Change and Agricultural Water Management in Developing Countries

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Contents:

  • Daily Noon Briefing
  • Agricultural Water Management and Climate Risk Report to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
  • Viewing Agricultural Water Management Through a Systems Analysis Lens

    • Our results suggested counties where there are areas cultivated using transgenic seeds will be less exposed to negative effects of climate change.

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    Average global temperatures have been continuously growing since the past decades and will continue to increase in coming years, which may present high frequency of extremely hot days ASSENG et al. Temperature rise is expected to accelerate phenological processes of plant development, resulting in a short growing season. A wide range of crops are vulnerable to thermal stress. Furthermore, interactions between the predicted increase in air temperature and, consequently, in soil temperature , dormancy and seed viability could lead to decreased agricultural productivity, especially in developing countries located at lower latitudes.

    According to our results, by using transgenic seeds tolerant or resistant to high temperature, Brazilian counties will decrease risks related to changes in weather pattern, avoiding direct and indirect losses. According to FAO and Gornall et al. Water deficit limits growth and development of plants and this problem tends to worsen in climate change scenarios. Water use has increased substantially with agricultural productivity improvement, which can lead to depletion of surface and underground water.

    Drought resulting from climate change can lead to sharp increases in food prices and poverty in developing countries. The use of GM crops less vulnerable to drought, obtained from a group of genes that collectively optimize water use, is an economically viable alternative to overcome predicted impacts of climate change. Thus, addressing temperature and water issues requires most realistic estimates that are possible of plant response to climate change. Sensitivity to heat is clearly increased in extreme drought situations, with even the coolest sites hurt by warming in absence of adequate soil moisture.

    Thus, agronomic measures to improve soil moisture and genetic breeding efforts to produce drought-tolerant crops are not only beneficial for managing present and future risks of drought, but are also probably important strategies to deal with future global warming. However, there are still legal and cultural barriers against use of transgenic seeds in Brazil. Much has been said about the dangers to environment and human health related to GM crops. Nowadays, there are few transgenic lines approved and commercially available in Brazil. Regardless of political and speculative issues, this study aimed to simply analyse the cost and benefit of use of transgenic seeds in a perspective of global climate change.

    It is known that transgenic seeds adoption involves several reductions in production costs, such as demands for water, pesticides and herbicides. Furthermore, GM crops have increased their productivity, since annual yields are higher. Thus, it is believed legal and cultural restrictions on GM crops adoption will be relieved in coming years, given the upcoming effects of climate change. Our results are regarding to Brazil as a whole and constitute a first attempt to understand the role of genetic breeding as an adaptive measure.

    Consequently, different regions and biomes may have different answers according to their specificities. In this sense, Brazilian public authorities need to consider regional differences when developing policies for adaptation to climate because their effects will not be identical throughout the country. At the same time, we need to reflect about the weight of this strategy in comparison to other agricultural practices. Margulis and Dubeux reported genetic breeding is more cost effective than irrigation for rice and bean.

    On the other hand, some adaptive measures such as changes in planting and harvesting seasons or shading may be less expensive. However, the Brazilian Panel on Climate Change PBMC, advised that as climate conditions become more severe, the adoption of new cultivars adapted to new weather patterns become of pivotal importance. Then reinforces that GM adoption must be combined with alternative agricultural techniques such as no-till farming or integrated production systems in order to ensure increased crop yield and food security. The results presented in this study confirmed prior expectations that adoption of genetic breeding is influenced by climate variations and should be modeled as an adaptive strategy.

    The main contribution of this work was to provide estimates of impacts of climate change in different future scenarios as well as modeling adaptation in an endogenous way to the model. Probit estimates analysis revealed that transgenic seeds have been adopted as a response to temperature variations rather than to reduced rainfall under current conditions.

    Daily Noon Briefing

    Have you read this book, or used it for one of your courses? Return flows are assumed to reenter the system in the same ASR from which they are withdrawn. Climate change, as characterized by changes in temperature and precipitation, acts to influence each of these water resource supply components. The economic impacts of climate change: evidence from agricultural output and random fluctuations in weather. According to Bento et al. Chapters include an assessment at global level, with details on impacts in various countries. As ocean health declines, so do opportunities for small island developing State communities to access safe, nutritious food, he said.

    This trend suggests variations in precipitation are less important for adoption of transgenic seeds in Brazil than temperature, but probably also results from a strong covariance between temperature and precipitation that makes inclusion of the latter partially redundant. Altogether the results that were found in this work clearly demonstrated the average land values of counties with cultivated areas using transgenic seeds tend to be more stable, demonstrating their effectiveness as an adaptive measure.

    In addition, it provided novel insights into the role of GM crops to improve agricultural performance of the country, making Brazil less vulnerable to climate change. It is confirmed, thus, the need to include adaptation measures in estimation, providing good assessment of the actual events.

    Ignoring the adjustment makes the estimation of impacts overestimate damages, sometimes dramatically. Losses to Brazilian agricultural yield from increased temperature and water deficit are almost certainly overestimated if adaptation is not accounted for. Here we have shown that genetic breeding could decrease average fractional losses.

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    Nevertheless, our results should not lead to an inappropriate conclusion that all Brazilian cultivars should be transgenic. We have only demonstrated GM adoption as an alternative, among other adaptive strategies, which can be succeed in future climate change scenarios. However, it is necessary to point out some limitations of this study.

    Our work did not capture the full range of adjustments that can be performed; in particular, when assuming fixed portions of land, it was not possible to consider how the pattern of land use for non agricultural purposes will change.

    Agricultural Water Management and Climate Risk Report to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

    Since it is a partial equilibrium study, it does not deal with implications of these results in terms of effects on other sectors of economy. The results presented here suggest that further analysis should consider these issues. It is also important to note that studies of crosstalk simulations of different adaptive measures, such as an integrative view of the relations between irrigation and genetic breeding, must be of great value to understand the magnitude of impacts. Furthermore, there are also potential benefits to warming that we have not included in our model, such as greater flexibility in planting times, a longer growing season and opportunities for cultivating new regions.

    Finally, more efforts are needed to clarify the overall significance of regional impacts of climate change in different biomes and crops grown in Brazil, particularly in scenarios of increased temperature and decreased rainfall patterns. Although our results indicate a less pessimistic scenario for effects of climate change, public policies such as national breeding programmes should seek strategies to combat the effects of global warming in agriculture sector.

    Given the importance of genetic breeding to mitigate effects of climate change, specific credit policies for future research in this area should be encouraged. Moreover, the prospect that adaptation strategies could have such a significant influence on future yields provides impetus for further study. Breeding for yield potential and stress adaptation in cereals.

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