Terrorism Within Comparative International Context: The Counter-Terrorism Response and Preparedness

Building Resilience Against Terrorism: Canada's Counter-terrorism Strategy

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The PNP has played a secondary role in counter-terrorism for several reasons, including a legacy of suspicion of the police from their role in the Marcos era, a history of nepotism and corruption, a lack of continuity in leadership and a history of poor investigative techniques and an over-reliance on questionable confessions Interviews, Australian and Philippine officials, Manila, January The weakness of and suspicion surrounding the PNP has, by default, thrust the Armed Forces of the Philippines into the forefront of Philippine counter-terrorism.

The Marines, working with various Special Forces units, have led the fight against the main terrorist groups. The Marines have worked closely with the United States, which has provided assistance in the areas of operations intelligence fusion, unit interoperability, logistics and civil-military operations. Figure 2 Terrorism incidents and interventions, Indonesia — This reflects the acute sensitivity on the part of the central government to any challenge that might threaten the territorial integrity of the country, a normative perception that has entrenched assimilation rather than accommodation as the preferred means for dealing with potential centrifugal forces.

As a result, Bangkok has dealt with counter-terrorism and political violence in its southern Malay provinces on the basis of the three pillars of Thai nation building—monarchy loyalty to the royal family , religion Buddhism and unity political, economic and societal; Interviews, Thai academics, Bangkok and Pattani, September This involves the deployment of regular troops and elite units from the Royal Thai Army who have worked closely with special police shock squads trained in small-team tactics, long-range surveillance and hostage rescue Interviews, Royal Thai Army officials, Bangkok and Yala, September In addition, considerable emphasis has been given to creating irregular paramilitary forces and village-based self-defence militia.

The former serves as a border patrol and light screening force, whereas the latter serves as a reserve capacity for the police. In common with the PNP, the Royal Thai Police have not been major players in counter-terrorism activities in the south, with the exception of certain paramilitarised units.

Like their counterparts in the PNP, they suffer from exceptionally poor forensic capabilities and an over-reliance on unsubstantiated confessions and eyewitness statements. This reform drive has been instituted as part of a general attempt to buttress hard-line counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency with a more nuanced policy mix of economic and dialogue initiatives Chalk et al. However, experts such as Peter Chalk report that little progress has been made in Thailand on the twin emphasis on military containment and assimilation Personal correspondence with Thai academics and western journalists, January—May Figure 4 Terrorism incidents and interventions, the Philippines — Modelling conflict dynamics began in the early twentieth century with the development of a set of mathematical equations to describe the outcome of a conventional military engagement between two parties Lanchester ; Ospiov These equations incorporate a set of coefficients describing the ability of each side to inflict damage on the other and their respective attrition rates.

The mathematics of this area of research see also Richardson form the basis for much of the analytical research in conflict and warfare see also Lepingwell ; Taylor Sapperstein extends this concept to a similar set of equations that describe the interaction between terrorists and counter-terrorism efforts.

The conflict dynamic framework adopted for this quantitative analysis extends the self-exciting model presented in Porter and White , and White, Porter and Mazerolle to include an inhibitory effect based on counter-terrorism interventions. The self-exciting model Hawkes a, b states mathematically that the occurrence of an event increases the probability of an event in the future, with the increase diminishing over time.

The model presented here builds on this by assuming that counter-terrorism efforts have a similar inhibitory effect that tends to reduce the probability of future terrorist events, with this inhibition effect diminishing over time. Examining the fitted model parameters allows for a quantitative examination of the effects of a particular type of counter-terrorism response on the overall risk, volatility and resilience of a population. A stepwise selection procedure was used to select the most informative class of interventions.

The selection of yearly counts is meant to be a robust means of accounting for the variability in the relationship between different intervention types and the lag before their effects are felt. For example, arrests of terrorists could have a more immediate short-term effect on the number of incidents, while legislative or prevention efforts would most likely take more time to have an effect. This method was applied to each of the three countries in this study and showed that the Response category had the strongest association with the rate of terrorism incidents over time.

These results guided the decision to focus the analysis on the Response class of interventions. A similar approach is presented in Dugan and Chenoweth using a non-parameteric model.

Special order items

The advantage in this case is the ability to directly compare the effects between contexts via the model parameter estimates. The model for the intervention effects is written as a logistic model for pt , the probability, or the risk, of an attack on day t. This model includes an annual trend.

Information for Readers and Authors

The functions g and h respectively describe the excitation effect of event history and the inhibition effect of intervention history. The combination of excitation and inhibition effects is illustrated in Figure 1. Model parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood estimation. The model results indicate a wide variety in the levels of effectiveness for counter-terrorism interventions in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand.

Public Opinion and Counterterrorism Policy

While not conclusive, these results, when compared with expert assessments, give credence to the modelling framework presented. Figure 5 Terrorism incidents and interventions, Thailand — Figure 2 shows the plot of the model-estimated risk for Indonesia from to Incidents are portrayed in black and interventions responses in red. Cross-border cooperation is vital to overcoming obstacles to security building and the consolidat….

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PUBLIC OPINION TRENDS ON TERRORISM

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1. Introduction

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