Global Health Risks: Mortality and Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risks

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The burden of disease attributable to risk factors is measured in terms of lost years of healthy life using the metric of the disability-adjusted life year DALY. The DALY combines years of life lost due to premature death with years of healthy life lost due to illness and disability. Health risks are in transition: populations are ageing owing to successes against infectious diseases; at the same time, patterns of physical activity and food, alcohol and tobacco consumption are changing. Low- and middle-income countries now face a double burden of increasing chronic, noncommunicable conditions, as well as the communicable diseases that traditionally affect the poor.

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Add to Wishlist. We have already mentioned the rather strong assumption, that risk relations taken from the most comprehensive meta-analysis are seen as a global constant with exception of Russia and surrounding countries where the risk relations are based on [ 98 , 99 ]; see also [ 84 ].

Future CRAs for alcohol consumption will have to more and more regionalize risk relations, not only based on genetic predisposition, but also based on socially determined risks such as the risks for injury outcomes [ , ]. Finally, we expect that future CRAs will have explicit separation on harm to drinkers and harm to others.

As indicated above, all CRAs resulted in marked burden of disease caused by alcohol consumption. Two dimensions were identified as important to cause harm: overall level of consumption and patterns of drinking [ 88 ]. Policies need to address both dimensions. However, these policies do not to seem to be too popular with governments, and in fact alcohol has become more available and affordable in most parts of the world over the past decades e.

Other potential ways to decrease overall level of alcohol consumption would be a decrease in alcoholic strength, which is technically possible for all beverages, and which could be achieved via government regulation, taxation or industry initiatives [ ]. In addition, it has to be assured, that the heaviest drinkers do not increase their drinking e.

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Regarding patterns of drinking, there are other promising policies such as minimum pricing [ , ], and specific policies to decrease heavy drinking occasions in certain situation, such as in participation in traffic [ ] or while operating machinery at the workplace [ ]. Obviously, harm would be minimized, if in such situations abstinence was the norm. Finally, the composition of alcohol-attributable burden of disease and mortality will have different implications for policy [ ].

A high proportion of traffic injury could be reduced with specific measures for drink driving such as introduction and enforcement of a per se law regarding blood alcohol concentration, or reduction of the blood alcohol concentration threshold in existing laws [ , ].

A narrative review of alcohol consumption as a risk factor for global burden of disease

On the other hand, high alcohol-attributable intentional injury will ask for specific measures such as measures against binge drinking or per se laws on criminal prosecution [ ]. To give one final example concerning chronic disease: high levels of alcohol-attributable liver disease mortality point to high overall level of consumption [ , ], or to relatively high level of consumption combined with other etiological factors for liver disease such as HIV as even comparatively small levels of alcohol consumption may cause liver mortality in people with liver cirrhosis no matter which etiology — see above for further detail and [ 20 ], for examples.

Reductions of overall alcohol consumption, no matter how achieved, will lead to reductions in alcohol-attributable liver mortality [ 20 ]. The CRA methodology has been evolving and for comparisons over time it is necessary to use the latest methodology and calculate backwards using the same methodology.

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If this principle is used, then CRAs can potentially inform the health policy process and yield important information for decision makers. Obviously, interventions will depend not only on the size and shape of the burden, but also on how much of the alcohol-attributable burden is avoidable [ ], and on aspects on feasibility, costs and cost-effectiveness of interventions [ 14 , 15 ]. For alcohol consumption, in principle all of the burden is avoidable, but any intervention will have to take into consideration the role alcohol has been playing in our society for thousands of years [ 13 ].

However, despite these general limitations, information about attributable burden will also be one major building block towards better policies [ 19 , ]. We would like to thank more than collaborators who helped in the various CRAs by contributing data and comments. This is a review of published materials. All specific sources cited are referenced in the text. JR did a first draft of the paper. Both authors helped in revising the manuscript and approved of the final draft. This is a narrative review of published sources.

No ethical approval was necessary.

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Consent to participate is not applicable. Skip to main content Skip to sections. Advertisement Hide. Download PDF. A narrative review of alcohol consumption as a risk factor for global burden of disease. Open Access. First Online: 28 October Background The very first Global Burden of Disease GBD Study [ 1 , 2 ] only gave indications on burden of disease as measured in number of deaths or disability adjusted life years DALYs; [ 3 , 4 ] by different disease categories.

Any CRA estimates depend very much on methodology, and the majority of the variation between the first estimate for [ 12 ] and the other estimates can be explained by the following factors see also [ 16 , 17 ]: Availability of and methodology used for cause of death and disability statistics on a global level. Relative risk estimates used to estimate attributable disease burden. Methodology used to derive attributable fractions.

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Alcohol-attributable cancers For the second reason specified above, take alcohol-attributable cancers as an example [ 42 ]. Alcohol-attributable infectious diseases and causes of death Of the alcohol-attributable disease categories, infectious diseases and causes of death constitute the most important overall change within the past two decades. Alcohol use and mental disorders It may be surprising that since no other mental disorders than alcohol use disorders have been included i.

Other alcohol-attributable disease and injury categories Other categories of alcohol-attributable disease and mortality included in current CRAs are fetal alcohol syndrome by definition , epilepsy [ 69 ], gastrointestinal disease liver cirrhosis [ 70 ] and pancreatitis [ 37 , 38 ]; the latter new for the CRA associated with GBD study and after , diabetes [ 71 ], cardiovascular disease [ 72 ] hypertensive disease [ 73 ], ischemic heart disease [ 74 ], stroke [ 75 ], and cardiac arrhythmias [ 76 ], the last one new for the CRAs and after, and almost all categories of injury [ 77 , 78 ].

Table 2 Categories of alcohol-attributable diseases and the sources used for determining risk relations from the WHO Global Status Report on Alcohol and Health [ 9 ] a.

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While the overall methodology for CRAs has been fairly stable for a description see [ , ] based on original epidemiological concepts of the s [ , ], there are important shifts in details: The first CRAs until and including the study were based on discrete categories of exposure and associated relative risks, whereas the latter were based on a continuous distribution of both exposure and risk for theoretical background: [ ]; for a comparison of both methods in the same sample: [ ] This implicated different ways to define exposure and to triangulate between national per capita consumption and surveys see [ 16 , ] and [ , ] for the categorical, and the continuous approach respectively.

In addition we expect the following methodological changes for future CRAs for alcohol: With respect to modelling exposure, methods to triangulate irregular heavy drinking occasions with per capita consumption are needed. Acknowledgments We would like to thank more than collaborators who helped in the various CRAs by contributing data and comments.

Availability of data and materials This is a review of published materials. Competing interest The authors declare that they have no competing interests. Consent for publication Not applicable.

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Ethics approval and consent to participate This is a narrative review of published sources. The global burden of disease in summary results, sensitivity analysis and future directions. WHO Bulletin. Google Scholar. World Bank.

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Global health risks: mortality and burden of disease attributable to selected major risks. 1. Risk factors. 2. World health. 3. Epidemiology. 4. Risk assessment. 5. World Health Organization. ( ) . Global health risks: mortality and burden of disease attributable to selected major risks. World Health Organization.

World Development Report -- Investing in Health. Understanding DALYs. J Health Econ. Murray CJL. Quantifying the burden of disease: the technical basis for disability-adjusted life years. Bull World Health Org. Summary measures of population health: Concepts, ethics, measurement and applications.

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Geneva: World Health Organization; Lopez AD. Cause of death in industrial and developing countries: estimates for Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries.

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